Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) — the honest read
As of 2026-09-10 · Consumer Cyclical · Price $252.40 · Engine verdict: BELOW THRESHOLD · Educational, not financial advice
Amazon.com Inc trades clearly above the value the model estimates: −42.6% margin of safety. It sits above even the optimistic scenario. That is why it sits below the engine's threshold today.
1 · What is it worth vs. its price?
| Price today | $252.40 |
| Model value (central) | $144.81 |
| Margin of safety | −42.6% |
| Floor (bear scenario) | $105.56 |
| Base case | $144.54 |
| Ceiling (bull scenario) | $184.61 |
| Model entry (30% below value) | $101.37 |
2 · Why this verdict?
- Quality 23/100 · Low. Profitability or stability fall short of what the engine looks for.
- Risk 60/100 · Medium. Higher means less risk penalty. Some balance-sheet or cyclical exposure weighs on the score.
- Value 10/100 · Low. No discount: it trades above the estimated value. FCF yield of 3.6%.
- Growth 65/100 · Medium. Moderate expected growth in cash flow. The base case assumes 6.0% a year.
Scale 0–100 · ≥70 high · 50–69 medium · <50 low. Risk is shown inverted: higher = safer.
3 · What would change it?
An entry price: $101.37 (60% below today). At that price Amazon.com Inc would trade 30% below the value the model estimates — the discount the engine asks for before considering a buy. Until then, patience: the model does not say "never".
What the screener ranks highest today in Consumer Cyclical (real engine labels, not "approvals"):
- BKNG — Booking Holdings Inc. · MoS +26% · hold / monitor
- EXPE — Expedia, Inc. · MoS +48% · hold / monitor
- DECK — Deckers Outdoor Corp · MoS +59% · hold / monitor
4 · For analysts
Scenarios
| Scenario | Growth | Intrinsic value | Margin of safety |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.8% | $105.56 | −58.2% |
| Base | 6.0% | $144.54 | −42.7% |
| Bull | 9.0% | $184.61 | −26.9% |
Expected return (model): +1.7% · Upside/downside skew: —
Quality metrics — ROIC 10.0% · FCF growth (5y) — · Debt / FCF -0.25x · FCF stability 0/100
DCF assumptions — WACC 11.77% · terminal growth 2.00% · growth used 5.98% · 10 years
Data quality — confidence 72% · coverage 100%
Data caveats: INVESTMENT_PHASE_OWNER_EARNINGS, GROWTH_EXCEEDS_ROIC, INVESTMENT_PHASE
How this read is made
A deterministic, conservative DCF (capped terminal growth) over point-in-time fundamentals from the same data lake the product uses, scored by the same decision engine. No language model writes or adjusts any number; the engine's structured output is the source. Intrinsic values are floor-style estimates, not price targets.
Run this read yourself, with today's numbers: https://divergia.ai/analyze/AMZN?utm_source=blog&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=honest_read&utm_content=amzn
For informational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Not a registered investment adviser. Model outputs, not recommendations personalised to your situation.